# OpenWindCast

> Independent day-ahead forecasts of electricity prices and wind power output for European bidding zones, scored every day in public against the grid operator's own forecast and the price the day-ahead auction clears at. Every published forecast is kept, including the days it lost.

- Wind power, live record: 21% lower error than the grid operators' own day-ahead forecasts on average (mean over 14 zones, each zone counted once); ahead of the operator in 10 of 14 zones; 1,093 scored live days.
- Electricity price: 49% lower error than a naive benchmark on average across 9 markets; 190 scored delivery days so far.
- Licence: CC BY-NC 4.0. Machine-readable record per zone: https://openwindcast.com/api/zone/<zone>.json

## Zones

- [Germany](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/germany/): day-ahead electricity price (German-Luxembourg bidding zone); onshore wind power, scored against the German TSOs. Wind live error 2.03% of capacity vs 1.39% for the German TSOs over 92 days. Price average miss 21.74 EUR/MWh over 20 days.
- [Spain](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/spain/): day-ahead electricity price (Spanish bidding zone); onshore wind power, scored against REE. Wind live error 1.72% of capacity vs 1.88% for REE over 93 days. Price average miss 18.34 EUR/MWh over 28 days.
- [Great Britain](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/great-britain/): onshore wind power, scored against NESO. Wind live error 3.27% of capacity vs 4.35% for NESO over 74 days.
- [Italy](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/italy/): onshore wind power, scored against Terna. Wind live error 2.54% of capacity vs 4.26% for Terna over 67 days.
- [Poland](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/poland/): day-ahead electricity price (Polish bidding zone); onshore wind power, scored against PSE. Wind live error 2.98% of capacity vs 4.42% for PSE over 79 days. Price average miss 23.90 EUR/MWh over 12 days.
- [Finland](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/finland/): day-ahead electricity price (Finnish bidding zone); onshore wind power, scored against Fingrid. Wind live error 3.57% of capacity vs 2.95% for Fingrid over 90 days. Price average miss 19.25 EUR/MWh over 26 days.
- [France](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/france/): day-ahead electricity price (French bidding zone). Price average miss 16.04 EUR/MWh over 13 days.
- [Ireland](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/ireland/): day-ahead electricity price (Single Electricity Market); onshore wind power, scored against EirGrid. Wind live error 2.32% of capacity vs 5.35% for EirGrid over 56 days. Price average miss 17.61 EUR/MWh over 32 days.
- [Portugal](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/portugal/): onshore wind power, scored against REN. Wind live error 2.64% of capacity vs 2.45% for REN over 77 days.
- [Greece](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/greece/): day-ahead electricity price (Greek bidding zone); onshore wind power, scored against IPTO. Wind live error 3.23% of capacity vs 5.01% for IPTO over 42 days. Price average miss 20.24 EUR/MWh over 11 days.
- [Austria](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/austria/): onshore wind power, scored against APG. Wind live error 3.46% of capacity vs 7.30% for APG over 67 days.
- [Denmark DK1](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/denmark-dk1/): day-ahead electricity price (DK1 bidding zone); onshore wind power, scored against Energinet. Wind live error 4.58% of capacity vs 5.67% for Energinet over 91 days. Price average miss 21.00 EUR/MWh over 17 days.
- [Flanders](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/belgium-flanders/): day-ahead electricity price (Belgian bidding zone); onshore wind power, scored against Elia. Wind live error 3.55% of capacity vs 7.18% for Elia over 93 days. Price average miss 17.82 EUR/MWh over 31 days.
- [Wallonia](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/belgium-wallonia/): day-ahead electricity price (Belgian bidding zone); onshore wind power, scored against Elia. Wind live error 3.14% of capacity vs 7.06% for Elia over 81 days. Price average miss 17.82 EUR/MWh over 31 days.
- [Denmark DK2](https://openwindcast.com/wind-power-forecast/denmark-dk2/): onshore wind power, scored against Energinet. Wind live error 4.25% of capacity vs 3.99% for Energinet over 91 days.

## Reference

- [How accurate are European TSO wind power forecasts?](https://openwindcast.com/tso-forecast-accuracy/): live comparison of every operator's day-ahead wind forecast.
- [Methodology](https://openwindcast.com/methodology/): the target, the metrics and the rules of the public record.
- [Glossary](https://openwindcast.com/glossary/): plain definitions of the terms used.