Denmark · onshore wind

Denmark DK2 (East) day-ahead wind power forecast

DK2 is the eastern Danish bidding zone, covering Zealand, Lolland, Falster, Møn and Bornholm, with 825 onshore turbines and about 745 MW of capacity. OpenWindCast publishes an independent day-ahead forecast of DK2 onshore wind and scores it daily against Energinet's own forecast.

Record updated 22 Sept 2026 Scored against Energinet

Tomorrow · Wed 23 Sept, 11:00 Copenhagen

12MW

1.6% of 744 MW installed

Energinet, same hour: 35 MW
Metered: not yet
80% interval: 0 to 41 MW

Most recent scored day, Tue 22 Sept

Metered 9 MW. OpenWindCast 17 MW, off by 1.1% of capacity; Energinet 29 MW, off by 2.8%. OpenWindCast closer

Scoreboard against Energinet

Live since 24 Jun 2026 · 91 scored days · 24 Jun to 22 Sept

6% higher error than Energinet's own day-ahead forecast

OpenWindCast

4.25%

of capacity

Energinet

3.99%

of capacity

Closer on

43%

of days

Error is the average miss at the 11:00 target, as a share of installed capacity (nMAE). Back-test before go-live, shown apart: 303 days, 11% lower error than Energinet. Only live days count above.

Forecast against the operator and the metered output

One point per day at 11:00, in MW. The shaded area is what the fleet actually produced; before the Live marker the forecast line is the back-test.

Accuracy by type of day

Live record, split by how windy the day turned out. Average error in % of capacity; further left is better.

OpenWindCast Energinet

Type of day	Days	OpenWindCast	Energinet	Closer on
Low-wind days below 15% of capacity	46	2.66%	2.34%	39%
Moderate days 15% to 35% of capacity	21	4.33%	3.28%	38%
High-wind days above 35% of capacity	24	7.23%	7.77%	54%

The daily record

One row per day at 11:00, in MW. Misses are in % of capacity. Losing days stay in the record.

JSON

Day (11:00)	OpenWindCast	Energinet	Metered	Our miss	Energinet miss	Closer
Wed 23 Sept	12	35	not yet	–	–	pending
Tue 22 Sept	17	29	9	1.1%	2.8%	OpenWindCast
Mon 21 Sept	492	429	424	9.1%	0.6%	Energinet
Sun 20 Sept	402	292	277	16.7%	2.0%	Energinet
Sat 19 Sept	410	318	402	1.1%	11.2%	OpenWindCast
Fri 18 Sept	330	321	379	6.7%	7.9%	OpenWindCast
Thu 17 Sept	280	206	262	2.4%	7.5%	OpenWindCast
Wed 16 Sept	100	84	119	2.6%	4.7%	OpenWindCast
Tue 15 Sept	103	109	87	2.2%	3.0%	OpenWindCast
Mon 14 Sept	98	84	63	4.7%	2.8%	Energinet
Sun 13 Sept	100	72	54	6.2%	2.4%	Energinet
Sat 12 Sept	49	52	59	1.3%	0.9%	Energinet
Fri 11 Sept	122	129	141	2.5%	1.5%	Energinet
Thu 10 Sept	191	200	269	10.4%	9.2%	Energinet

Energinet's forecast is captured on the day it is published and held fixed. Operators refine their forecasts nearer to delivery, so a value published later may differ. The most recent day or two settle once measured generation is published.

Forecasting wind in Denmark DK2

DK2 is the eastern Danish bidding zone: Zealand, Lolland, Falster, Møn and Bornholm. The forecast covers DK2 onshore wind and is scored against Energinet's published day-ahead forecast.

DK2 is the smallest fleet in the portfolio, and small fleets are structurally harder to forecast as a share of their capacity. With 745 MW spread over a handful of islands there is very little internal averaging, so a single band of showers crossing Zealand an hour early moves the whole zone total, where the same band over a fleet a hundred times the size would barely register. Bornholm adds to that: it lies roughly 150 km east of the rest of the zone, out in the Baltic, and can sit under quite different weather from Zealand on the same day.

The benchmark

The benchmark is Energinet's own day-ahead forecast for DK2 onshore wind, taken from the Energi Data Service. As in DK1, it is frozen on first capture, because Energinet's service can return a revised value for a past hour on a later query and a moving bar is not a bar.

What is published for Denmark DK2

One value per day: onshore wind output at 11:00 local time tomorrow, as a load factor and in megawatts. Once Energinet's own forecast for that day is published it is captured and held fixed, and once the metered output is settled both forecasts are scored against it. Every day is added to the record above and nothing is removed or rewritten later. How this is measured.

Questions about wind in Denmark DK2

Why would DK2 show a larger error than DK1?

Because it is roughly one sixth the size and spread across islands. Small, concentrated fleets have little internal error cancellation, so one mistimed shower band moves the whole zone at once.

Does DK2 include Bornholm?

Yes. Bornholm is part of the DK2 bidding zone, and it sits far enough east to be under genuinely different weather from Zealand.

Other bidding zones

Compare every operator: how accurate are European TSO wind power forecasts? · How the scoring works