Live record · latest forecasts for Wed 28 Oct
Forecasting electricity prices and power output
Day-ahead forecasts for 15 European bidding zones, scored every day against the grid operator's own forecast and the price the auction clears at.
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Wind power
14%
lower error than the grid operators’ own forecasts
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Electricity price
55%
lower error than a naive price benchmark
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Public record
2,073
forecasts scored in the open
Every zone, one record
The latest forecasts and how each zone is scoring
Wind accuracy counts live days only, from the date each zone went live. Price accuracy is measured on every scored delivery day. Both are recomputed from the public record every few minutes.
| Zone | Price forecast, day average | Price accuracy | Wind forecast, 11:00 | Wind accuracy, live | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Wind | Not covered | Not covered | 117 MW Wed 28 Oct · 3% of capacity | 46% lower error than APG 102 live days · closer on 65% | |
| Denmark DK1 Price Wind | €186.15 Wed 28 Oct · €130 to €259 | 61% lower error than naive 52 days · average miss €19.27/MWh | 675 MW Wed 28 Oct · 16% of capacity | 25% lower error than Energinet 125 live days · closer on 63% | |
| Denmark DK2 Wind | Not covered | Not covered | 42 MW Wed 28 Oct · 6% of capacity | 1% lower error than Energinet 125 live days · closer on 49% | |
| Finland Price Wind | €6.00 Wed 28 Oct · €0 to €16 | 56% lower error than naive 61 days · average miss €16.73/MWh | 6,317 MW Wed 28 Oct · 66% of capacity | 26% higher error than Fingrid 125 live days · closer on 44% | |
| Flanders Price Wind | €201.02 Wed 28 Oct · €93 to €317 | 57% lower error than naive 65 days · average miss €17.16/MWh | 120 MW Wed 28 Oct · 7% of capacity | 11% lower error than Elia 128 live days · closer on 65% | |
| France Price | €243.70 Wed 28 Oct · €183 to €350 | 64% lower error than naive 48 days · average miss €17.62/MWh | Not covered | Not covered | |
| Germany Price Wind | €226.04 Wed 28 Oct · €177 to €289 | 63% lower error than naive 55 days · average miss €18.15/MWh | 7,505 MW Wed 28 Oct · 11% of capacity | 45% higher error than the German TSOs 125 live days · closer on 37% | |
| Great Britain Wind | Not covered | Not covered | 6,976 MW Wed 28 Oct · 48% of capacity | 41% lower error than NESO 108 live days · closer on 66% | |
| Greece Price Wind | €232.61 Wed 28 Oct · €167 to €322 | 44% lower error than naive 46 days · average miss €21.52/MWh | 2,079 MW Wed 28 Oct · 38% of capacity | 39% lower error than IPTO 75 live days · closer on 59% | |
| Ireland Price Wind | €226.91 Wed 28 Oct · €134 to €349 | 61% lower error than naive 66 days · average miss €16.82/MWh | 1,976 MW Wed 28 Oct · 29% of capacity | 57% lower error than EirGrid 90 live days · closer on 74% | |
| Italy Wind | Not covered | Not covered | 3,869 MW Wed 28 Oct · 30% of capacity | 35% lower error than Terna 102 live days · closer on 69% | |
| Poland Price Wind | €232.89 Wed 28 Oct · €152 to €471 | 40% lower error than naive 47 days · average miss €25.48/MWh | 424 MW Wed 28 Oct · 4% of capacity | 30% lower error than PSE 113 live days · closer on 60% | |
| Portugal Wind | Not covered | Not covered | 262 MW Wed 28 Oct · 5% of capacity | 17% higher error than REN 110 live days · closer on 42% | |
| Spain Price Wind | €204.93 Wed 28 Oct · €91 to €302 | 46% lower error than naive 62 days · average miss €17.63/MWh | 3,518 MW Wed 28 Oct · 11% of capacity | 0% lower error than REE 127 live days · closer on 46% | |
| Wallonia Price Wind | €201.02 Wed 28 Oct · €93 to €317 | 57% lower error than naive 65 days · average miss €17.16/MWh | 62 MW Wed 28 Oct · 4% of capacity | 0% higher error than Elia 116 live days · closer on 50% |
How it works
Forecast, score, publish. Every day.
- 01
Forecast the day before
Each day brings a forecast for tomorrow: the electricity price for every hour of the auction day, and wind power output at 11:00 local time.
- 02
Score against the real outcome
Wind is scored against metered output, beside the grid operator's own forecast. Prices are scored against the price the auction clears at, beside a naive benchmark.
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Keep every day, for good
A published forecast is never edited. The days it loses stay in the record next to the days it wins, and the whole record is open to download.
What does OpenWindCast forecast?
Two things, for European bidding zones. The day-ahead electricity price for every hour of tomorrow, in 9 markets, and onshore wind power output at 11:00 local time tomorrow, in 14 zones. Each forecast is made the day before delivery and scored once the outcome is known.
How accurate are the forecasts?
Across the live record, the wind power forecasts have 14% lower error than the grid operators' own day-ahead forecasts on average, and are ahead of the operator in 10 of 14 zones. The electricity price forecasts have 55% lower error than a naive benchmark on average across 9 markets, over 502 scored days so far. Every zone page shows its own record, including the zones and days where the forecast lost.
What are they scored against?
Wind forecasts are scored against the metered output, side by side with the grid operator's own day-ahead forecast for the same hour. Price forecasts are scored against the price the day-ahead auction actually clears at, and compared with a naive benchmark, because no grid operator publishes a price forecast with a record.
Can a published forecast be changed later?
No. Every forecast is written once and never edited. Days the forecast gets wrong stay in the record beside the days it gets right.
Is the data free to use?
Yes, with credit. Our forecasts and scores are licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0. The operator forecasts, metered output and auction prices shown beside them remain their publishers' data, under their own terms, and each zone page credits them. Every zone's record is also available as JSON at /api/zone/<zone>.json. For more information, email m.sahaf@live.com.