DK1 is the western Danish bidding zone, covering Jutland and Funen, with 3,313 onshore turbines and about 4.1 GW of capacity on some of the windiest onshore ground in Europe. OpenWindCast publishes an independent day-ahead forecast of DK1 onshore wind and scores it daily against Energinet's own forecast.
Averages across all zones. Every number on this page is recomputed daily from the public record below.
Great Britain has one of the largest onshore wind fleets in Europe, with most capacity in Scotland. The forecast covers GB onshore wind and is scored against NESO's own forecast, published through Elexon.
Every forecast ships with an 80% interval. This shows how often the actual output landed inside it, and how wide it was.
Western Jutland faces the North Sea with nothing upwind to slow the flow, and the fleet there is dense, mature and well documented. The combination gives DK1 one of the highest load factors of any onshore zone in Europe. It also means the fleet spends a good deal of its time near rated power, where the power curve is flat, and then moves quickly through the steep section of the curve when a weather system passes. Danish terrain is gentle, so the difficulty in DK1 is much more about timing than about the local wind field.
The benchmark is Energinet's own day-ahead forecast for DK1 onshore wind, taken from the Energi Data Service rather than through ENTSO-E. Energinet can return a revised value for a past hour on a later query, so the benchmark is frozen the first time it is captured and never overwritten. Otherwise the bar would move after the fact and the comparison would mean nothing.
One value per day: onshore wind output at 11:00 local time tomorrow, expressed as a load factor and published before 12:00 local, ahead of the day-ahead auction rather than after it. Once Energinet's own forecast for that day is published it is captured and held fixed, and once the metered output is settled both forecasts are scored against it. Every day is added to the record below and nothing is removed or rewritten later, so the full history is there to be checked rather than summarised. How this is measured.
Because they are separate bidding zones with separate prices, divided by the Great Belt. DK1 is Jutland and Funen with about 4.1 GW onshore, and DK2 is Zealand and the eastern islands with about 0.75 GW. Averaging them would hide both.
No. DK1 here is onshore only, which is what allows the comparison against Energinet's onshore forecast.
Compare every zone: how accurate are European TSO wind forecasts?
Mean absolute error as a percentage of installed capacity. Lower is better.
The share of days the forecast lands closer to the metered output than the operator's own forecast.
The range the actual output should land in 80% of the time, recalibrated daily.
NESO's published day-ahead 11:00 forecast, a fixed yardstick that is never used as an input.
A forecast of wind generation for the next delivery day, issued before the day-ahead electricity auction closes at 12:00 CET. Market participants use it to decide how much wind energy to bid into the auction.
One value per zone per day: the onshore wind output at 11:00 local time on the next day, expressed as a load factor and converted to megawatts with the installed capacity the grid operator publishes. Every forecast is published in the morning, before 12:00 local time.
Each day, the absolute error of the OpenWindCast forecast and of the grid operator's own day-ahead forecast are compared on the same 11:00 target. The site reports the mean absolute error as a share of installed capacity (nMAE), the win rate, and, where official prices are available, the imbalance cost of bidding each forecast.
Benchmark forecasts, metered generation and installed capacity come from the grid operators: Energinet, Elia, Fingrid, Red Eléctrica, the four German TSOs, PSE, REN, NESO via Elexon, and EirGrid with SONI, mostly through the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. Weather inputs come from Open-Meteo.
Yes. The dashboard and the daily verification record are public, and each zone's history can be downloaded as CSV from the forecast section. For anything else, email m.sahaf@live.com.