Poland day-ahead electricity price and wind power forecast

Forecasting the Polish electricity price

Poland is a single bidding zone, so one day-ahead price applies across the whole country. OpenWindCast forecasts all 24 hours of tomorrow's delivery day, using only information available before the auction closes.

The Polish day-ahead auction sets one price per hour for the Polish bidding zone, which covers the whole country, and it closes at 12:00 CET for the following delivery day. Every forecast here uses only information that was available before then, and covers all 24 hours, in euro per megawatt hour.

Poland is coupled to Germany, Czechia and Slovakia inside the Core flow-based region, and to Lithuania and Sweden by separate links, but its price is very much its own. Over the past year it cleared at exactly the German price on only about 4 per cent of hours, and on average it sat around 14 euro per megawatt hour above it. Two coupled prices only meet when the borders between them have room to spare, and between Poland and its neighbours that is the exception rather than the rule.

It is also still a coal market. In August 2026 hard coal and lignite together produced close to half of Polish electricity, with gas adding about another tenth, so the level of the price follows coal, gas and carbon costs. Much of that cost base is in złoty while the auction clears in euro, so the exchange rate moves the price as well.

On top of the coal fleet sits a solar fleet that has grown very quickly, to more than 20 GW, and in August 2026 it produced more than a fifth of Polish electricity. It has changed the shape of the day. No hour cleared below zero in 2020, 2021 or 2022; so far in 2026 about 5 per cent have, and they fall almost entirely in the middle of the day, with none in the evening. The midday dip is followed by an evening peak once the sun has gone and the thermal fleet is setting the price again, so the daily shape here is not a flat line with two bumps.

The auction clears once and the price it sets is final, which is what makes the record on this page possible. Each published forecast is written once and never changed, and the price the auction actually cleared at is placed beside it hour by hour as soon as it settles, including on the days the forecast was wrong. The hours are the CET auction day, which for Poland is also local time, all year round.

The price forecast and the Polish wind forecast are separate products, scored separately, and each has its own record on this page.

Forecasting wind in Poland

Poland runs one of the fastest-growing onshore wind fleets in central Europe, concentrated in the northern voivodeships. The forecast covers Polish onshore wind and is scored against the day-ahead forecast PSE publishes through the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.

The Polish fleet is concentrated in the north and north-west, across Zachodniopomorskie, Pomorskie, Wielkopolska and Kujawsko-Pomorskie, over flat and open ground near the Baltic. Simple terrain makes the wind field itself more tractable than in mountainous countries. The distinctive feature in Poland is on the market side: when day-ahead prices fall to zero or below, output can be curtailed for commercial rather than meteorological reasons, and metered generation then falls short of what the weather alone would have produced. Because a fleet growing this quickly also makes absolute megawatts a moving target, everything here is measured as a load factor, so the record stays comparable as capacity is added.

The benchmark

The benchmark is PSE's own day-ahead wind forecast for the Polish bidding zone, distributed through the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform, captured on the day of publication and then held fixed.

What is published for Poland

One value per day: onshore wind output at 11:00 local time tomorrow, as a load factor and in megawatts. Once PSE's own forecast for that day is published it is captured and held fixed, and once the metered output is settled both forecasts are scored against it. Every day is added to the record above and nothing is removed or rewritten later. How this is measured.