Poland · electricity price and wind power

Poland day-ahead wind power forecast

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Record updated 27 Oct 2026 Scored against PSE

Tomorrow · Wed 28 Oct, 11:00 Warsaw

424MW

4.0% of 10,700 MW installed

PSE, same hour: published later
Metered: not yet
80% interval: 186 to 669 MW

Most recent scored day, Tue 27 Oct

Metered 2,116 MW. OpenWindCast 1,698 MW, off by 3.9% of capacity; PSE 2,069 MW, off by 0.4%. PSE closer

Scoreboard against PSE

Live since 4 Jul 2026 · 113 scored days · 4 Jul to 27 Oct

30% lower error than PSE's own day-ahead forecast

OpenWindCast

2.95%

of capacity

PSE

4.19%

of capacity

Closer on

60%

of days

Error is the average miss at the 11:00 target, as a share of installed capacity (nMAE). Back-test before go-live, shown apart: 270 days, 23% lower error than PSE. Only live days count above.

Forecast against the operator and the metered output

One point per day at 11:00, in MW. The shaded area is what the fleet actually produced; before the Live marker the forecast line is the back-test.

Accuracy by type of day

Live record, split by how windy the day turned out. Average error in % of capacity; further left is better.

OpenWindCast PSE

Type of day	Days	OpenWindCast	PSE	Closer on
Low-wind days below 15% of capacity	60	1.73%	1.94%	53%
Moderate days 15% to 35% of capacity	37	3.49%	5.22%	68%
High-wind days above 35% of capacity	16	6.27%	10.24%	69%

The daily record

One row per day at 11:00, in MW. Misses are in % of capacity. Losing days stay in the record.

JSON

Day (11:00)	OpenWindCast	PSE	Metered	Our miss	PSE miss	Closer
Wed 28 Oct	424	–	not yet	–	–	pending
Tue 27 Oct	1,698	2,069	2,116	3.9%	0.4%	PSE
Sun 25 Oct	6,044	7,708	5,219	7.7%	23.3%	OpenWindCast
Sat 24 Oct	2,953	3,388	3,014	0.6%	3.5%	OpenWindCast
Fri 23 Oct	976	1,005	652	3.0%	3.3%	OpenWindCast
Thu 22 Oct	3,606	3,928	3,443	1.5%	4.5%	OpenWindCast
Wed 21 Oct	3,801	4,474	4,354	5.2%	1.1%	PSE
Tue 20 Oct	1,776	2,048	1,862	0.8%	1.7%	OpenWindCast
Mon 19 Oct	1,360	1,694	1,920	5.2%	2.1%	PSE
Sun 18 Oct	1,333	1,955	1,732	3.7%	2.1%	PSE
Sat 17 Oct	218	286	137	0.8%	1.4%	OpenWindCast
Fri 16 Oct	928	900	796	1.2%	1.0%	PSE
Thu 15 Oct	632	652	449	1.7%	1.9%	OpenWindCast
Wed 14 Oct	4,249	5,476	5,015	7.2%	4.3%	PSE

PSE's forecast is captured on the day it is published and held fixed. Operators refine their forecasts nearer to delivery, so a value published later may differ. The most recent day or two settle once measured generation is published.

Forecasting wind in Poland

Poland runs one of the fastest-growing onshore wind fleets in central Europe, concentrated in the northern voivodeships. The forecast covers Polish onshore wind and is scored against the day-ahead forecast PSE publishes through the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.

The Polish fleet is concentrated in the north and north-west, across Zachodniopomorskie, Pomorskie, Wielkopolska and Kujawsko-Pomorskie, over flat and open ground near the Baltic. Simple terrain makes the wind field itself more tractable than in mountainous countries. The distinctive feature in Poland is on the market side: when day-ahead prices fall to zero or below, output can be curtailed for commercial rather than meteorological reasons, and metered generation then falls short of what the weather alone would have produced. Because a fleet growing this quickly also makes absolute megawatts a moving target, everything here is measured as a load factor, so the record stays comparable as capacity is added.

The benchmark

The benchmark is PSE's own day-ahead wind forecast for the Polish bidding zone, distributed through the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform, captured on the day of publication and then held fixed.

What is published for Poland

One value per day: onshore wind output at 11:00 local time tomorrow, as a load factor and in megawatts. Once PSE's own forecast for that day is published it is captured and held fixed, and once the metered output is settled both forecasts are scored against it. Every day is added to the record above and nothing is removed or rewritten later. How this is measured.

Questions about wind in Poland

Why is a fast-growing fleet harder to score?

Because a forecast can look better in megawatts simply because the fleet behind it got bigger. Expressing everything as a share of installed capacity removes fleet growth from the comparison.

Does curtailment count as a forecast error?

Both forecasts are compared against metered output, so a day when generation is curtailed for market reasons affects both. Publishing the full daily record rather than a headline average is what keeps those days visible.

Official links for Poland

Grid operators, their published data, the power exchange and the European transparency platform.

Other bidding zones

Compare every operator: how accurate are European TSO wind power forecasts? · How the scoring works