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Denmark DK1 day-ahead wind power forecast

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Record updated 27 Oct 2026 Scored against Energinet

Tomorrow · Wed 28 Oct, 11:00 Copenhagen

675MW

16.2% of 4,168 MW installed

Energinet, same hour: published later
Metered: not yet
80% interval: 602 to 881 MW

Most recent scored day, Tue 27 Oct

Metered 2,617 MW. OpenWindCast 2,390 MW, off by 5.4% of capacity; Energinet 2,229 MW, off by 9.3%. OpenWindCast closer

Scoreboard against Energinet

Live since 24 Jun 2026 · 125 scored days · 24 Jun to 27 Oct

25% lower error than Energinet's own day-ahead forecast

OpenWindCast

4.27%

of capacity

Energinet

5.70%

of capacity

Closer on

63%

of days

Error is the average miss at the 11:00 target, as a share of installed capacity (nMAE). Back-test before go-live, shown apart: 268 days, 20% lower error than Energinet. Only live days count above.

Forecast against the operator and the metered output

One point per day at 11:00, in MW. The shaded area is what the fleet actually produced; before the Live marker the forecast line is the back-test.

Accuracy by type of day

Live record, split by how windy the day turned out. Average error in % of capacity; further left is better.

OpenWindCast Energinet

Type of day	Days	OpenWindCast	Energinet	Closer on
Low-wind days below 15% of capacity	52	2.01%	1.77%	50%
Moderate days 15% to 35% of capacity	36	5.01%	5.87%	61%
High-wind days above 35% of capacity	37	6.73%	11.07%	84%

The daily record

One row per day at 11:00, in MW. Misses are in % of capacity. Losing days stay in the record.

JSON

Day (11:00)	OpenWindCast	Energinet	Metered	Our miss	Energinet miss	Closer
Wed 28 Oct	675	–	not yet	–	–	pending
Tue 27 Oct	2,390	2,229	2,617	5.4%	9.3%	OpenWindCast
Sun 25 Oct	2,781	2,126	2,470	7.5%	8.3%	OpenWindCast
Sat 24 Oct	1,049	1,004	1,055	0.1%	1.2%	OpenWindCast
Fri 23 Oct	440	371	251	4.5%	2.9%	Energinet
Thu 22 Oct	1,687	1,538	1,469	5.2%	1.7%	Energinet
Wed 21 Oct	737	802	899	3.9%	2.3%	Energinet
Tue 20 Oct	1,282	1,051	1,392	2.6%	8.2%	OpenWindCast
Mon 19 Oct	315	398	355	1.0%	1.0%	OpenWindCast
Sun 18 Oct	1,093	927	869	5.4%	1.4%	Energinet
Sat 17 Oct	1,085	994	1,368	6.8%	9.0%	OpenWindCast
Fri 16 Oct	502	529	1,153	15.6%	15.0%	Energinet
Thu 15 Oct	1,819	1,420	2,082	6.3%	15.9%	OpenWindCast
Wed 14 Oct	2,068	1,707	2,430	8.7%	17.3%	OpenWindCast

Energinet's forecast is captured on the day it is published and held fixed. Operators refine their forecasts nearer to delivery, so a value published later may differ. The most recent day or two settle once measured generation is published.

Forecasting wind in Denmark DK1

DK1 is the western Danish bidding zone, covering Jutland and Funen, one of the windiest onshore areas in Europe. The forecast covers DK1 onshore wind and is scored against Energinet's published day-ahead forecast.

Western Jutland faces the North Sea with nothing upwind to slow the flow, and the fleet there is dense, mature and well documented. The combination gives DK1 one of the highest load factors of any onshore zone in Europe. It also means the fleet spends a good deal of its time near rated power, where the power curve is flat, and then moves quickly through the steep section of the curve when a weather system passes. Danish terrain is gentle, so the difficulty in DK1 is much more about timing than about the local wind field.

The benchmark

The benchmark is Energinet's own day-ahead forecast for DK1 onshore wind, taken from the Energi Data Service rather than through ENTSO-E. Energinet can return a revised value for a past hour on a later query, so the benchmark is frozen the first time it is captured and never overwritten. Otherwise the bar would move after the fact and the comparison would mean nothing.

What is published for Denmark DK1

One value per day: onshore wind output at 11:00 local time tomorrow, as a load factor and in megawatts. Once Energinet's own forecast for that day is published it is captured and held fixed, and once the metered output is settled both forecasts are scored against it. Every day is added to the record above and nothing is removed or rewritten later. How this is measured.

Questions about wind in Denmark DK1

Why are DK1 and DK2 forecast separately?

Because they are separate bidding zones with separate prices, divided by the Great Belt. DK1 is Jutland and Funen with about 4.1 GW onshore, and DK2 is Zealand and the eastern islands with about 0.75 GW. Averaging them would hide both.

Is Danish offshore wind included?

No. DK1 here is onshore only, which is what allows the comparison against Energinet's onshore forecast.

Official links for Denmark DK1

Grid operators, their published data, the power exchange and the European transparency platform.

Other bidding zones

Compare every operator: how accurate are European TSO wind power forecasts? · How the scoring works