Finland · electricity price and wind power
Finland day-ahead wind power forecast
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Tomorrow · Wed 28 Oct, 11:00 Helsinki
Wind power forecast for Wednesday 28 October 2026
6,317MW
66.1% of 9,553 MW installed
- Fingrid, same hour
- published later
- Metered
- not yet
- 80% interval
- 5,112 to 7,578 MW
Most recent scored day, Tue 27 Oct
Metered 5,897 MW. OpenWindCast 5,583 MW, off by 3.3% of capacity; Fingrid 5,740 MW, off by 1.6%. Fingrid closer
Scoreboard against Fingrid
Live since 25 Jun 2026 · 125 scored days · 25 Jun to 27 Oct
26% higher error than Fingrid's own day-ahead forecast
OpenWind
3.88%
of capacity
Fingrid
3.09%
of capacity
Closer on
44%
of days
Error is the average miss at the 11:00 target, as a share of installed capacity (nMAE). Back-test before go-live, shown apart: 274 days, 16% lower error than Fingrid. Only live days count above.
Forecast against the operator and the metered output
One point per day at 11:00, in MW. The shaded area is what the fleet actually produced; before the Live marker the forecast line is the back-test.
Accuracy by type of day
Live record, split by how windy the day turned out. Average error in % of capacity; further left is better.
| Type of day | Days | OpenWindCast | Fingrid | Closer on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low-wind days below 15% of capacity | 62 | 2.49% | 1.88% | 48% |
| Moderate days 15% to 35% of capacity | 37 | 5.33% | 2.93% | 30% |
| High-wind days above 35% of capacity | 26 | 5.14% | 6.21% | 54% |
The daily record
One row per day at 11:00, in MW. Misses are in % of capacity. Losing days stay in the record.
| Day (11:00) | OpenWindCast | Fingrid | Metered | Our miss | Fingrid miss | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | 6,317 | – | not yet | – | – | pending |
| Tue 27 Oct | 5,583 | 5,740 | 5,897 | 3.3% | 1.6% | Fingrid |
| Mon 26 Oct | 5,565 | 6,537 | 5,776 | 2.2% | 8.0% | OpenWindCast |
| Sun 25 Oct | 5,427 | 5,861 | 5,522 | 1.0% | 3.6% | OpenWindCast |
| Sat 24 Oct | 1,817 | 2,137 | 2,153 | 3.5% | 0.2% | Fingrid |
| Fri 23 Oct | 3,702 | 3,512 | 4,053 | 3.7% | 5.7% | OpenWindCast |
| Thu 22 Oct | 3,593 | 3,930 | 4,001 | 4.3% | 0.7% | Fingrid |
| Wed 21 Oct | 3,700 | 2,485 | 3,718 | 0.2% | 12.9% | OpenWindCast |
| Tue 20 Oct | 3,406 | 3,159 | 2,891 | 5.4% | 2.8% | Fingrid |
| Mon 19 Oct | 4,903 | 4,344 | 5,510 | 6.4% | 12.2% | OpenWindCast |
| Sun 18 Oct | 518 | 1,052 | 1,185 | 7.0% | 1.4% | Fingrid |
| Sat 17 Oct | 1,720 | 1,987 | 2,118 | 4.2% | 1.4% | Fingrid |
| Fri 16 Oct | 4,940 | 4,309 | 3,300 | 17.2% | 10.6% | Fingrid |
| Thu 15 Oct | 3,883 | 5,070 | 4,865 | 10.3% | 2.1% | Fingrid |
Fingrid's forecast is captured on the day it is published and held fixed. Operators refine their forecasts nearer to delivery, so a value published later may differ. The most recent day or two settle once measured generation is published.
Forecasting wind in Finland
Finland's wind fleet stretches from the Ostrobothnian coast to Lapland and is among the fastest-growing in Europe. The forecast covers the whole Finnish fleet and is scored against Fingrid's published wind power forecast.
The Finnish fleet runs up the Gulf of Bothnia coast and inland across Ostrobothnia and into Lapland, over flat, forested and cold country. Two things make it distinctive. The turbines are recent, tall and high-rated, so the fleet spends a large share of its time on the steep part of the power curve, where a modest error in wind speed translates into a large error in megawatts. And in winter, blade icing can take capacity out of service while the wind is still blowing, which is a well-known limitation for any forecast built on wind conditions alone.
The benchmark
The benchmark is Fingrid's own day-ahead wind forecast, taken from Fingrid's open data service rather than through ENTSO-E, along with the metered generation and the installed capacity used to score it. Fingrid publishes early enough that the comparison is available the same day.
What is published for Finland
One value per day: onshore wind output at 11:00 local time tomorrow, as a load factor and in megawatts. Once Fingrid's own forecast for that day is published it is captured and held fixed, and once the metered output is settled both forecasts are scored against it. Every day is added to the record above and nothing is removed or rewritten later. How this is measured.
Questions about wind in Finland
Why does winter matter so much in Finland?
Because blade icing removes capacity while the wind is still blowing. It is one of the reasons the full daily record is published rather than a headline average, so the harder days stay visible.
Is Finnish offshore wind included?
Finland's offshore capacity is small next to its onshore fleet and is not separated out. The forecast tracks the fleet Fingrid's own forecast covers.
Official links for Finland
Grid operators, their published data, the power exchange and the European transparency platform.
Other bidding zones
- Germany
- Spain
- Great Britain
- Italy
- Poland
- France
- Ireland
- Portugal
- Greece
- Austria
- Denmark DK1
- Flanders
- Wallonia
- Denmark DK2
Compare every operator: how accurate are European TSO wind power forecasts? · How the scoring works