Germany · electricity price and wind power
Germany day-ahead wind power forecast
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Tomorrow · Wed 28 Oct, 11:00 Berlin
Wind power forecast for Wednesday 28 October 2026
7,505MW
11.1% of 67,923 MW installed
- German TSOs, same hour
- published later
- Metered
- not yet
- 80% interval
- 6,059 to 8,429 MW
Most recent scored day, Tue 27 Oct
Metered 16,268 MW. OpenWindCast 16,064 MW, off by 0.3% of capacity; German TSOs 16,818 MW, off by 0.8%. OpenWindCast closer
Scoreboard against the German TSOs
Live since 21 Jun 2026 · 125 scored days · 21 Jun to 27 Oct
45% higher error than the German TSOs' own day-ahead forecast
OpenWind
2.03%
of capacity
German TSOs
1.40%
of capacity
Closer on
37%
of days
Error is the average miss at the 11:00 target, as a share of installed capacity (nMAE). Back-test before go-live, shown apart: 273 days, 18% higher error than the German TSOs. Only live days count above.
Forecast against the operator and the metered output
One point per day at 11:00, in MW. The shaded area is what the fleet actually produced; before the Live marker the forecast line is the back-test.
Accuracy by type of day
Live record, split by how windy the day turned out. Average error in % of capacity; further left is better.
| Type of day | Days | OpenWindCast | German TSOs | Closer on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low-wind days below 15% of capacity | 79 | 1.18% | 0.87% | 37% |
| Moderate days 15% to 35% of capacity | 35 | 3.36% | 2.27% | 46% |
| High-wind days above 35% of capacity | 11 | 3.91% | 2.45% | 9% |
The daily record
One row per day at 11:00, in MW. Misses are in % of capacity. Losing days stay in the record.
| Day (11:00) | OpenWindCast | German TSOs | Metered | Our miss | German TSOs miss | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | 7,505 | – | not yet | – | – | pending |
| Tue 27 Oct | 16,064 | 16,818 | 16,268 | 0.3% | 0.8% | OpenWindCast |
| Sun 25 Oct | 43,444 | 42,649 | 37,330 | 9.0% | 7.8% | German TSOs |
| Sat 24 Oct | 42,594 | – | 43,444 | 1.2% | – | pending |
| Fri 23 Oct | 27,176 | 26,456 | 26,653 | 0.8% | 0.3% | German TSOs |
| Thu 22 Oct | 28,433 | 29,499 | 29,818 | 2.0% | 0.5% | German TSOs |
| Wed 21 Oct | 5,631 | 6,303 | 5,305 | 0.5% | 1.5% | OpenWindCast |
| Tue 20 Oct | 11,968 | 12,708 | 12,219 | 0.4% | 0.7% | OpenWindCast |
| Mon 19 Oct | 10,569 | 11,988 | 10,481 | 0.1% | 2.2% | OpenWindCast |
| Sun 18 Oct | 10,705 | 12,185 | 13,571 | 4.2% | 2.0% | German TSOs |
| Sat 17 Oct | 13,557 | 14,719 | 16,750 | 4.7% | 3.0% | German TSOs |
| Fri 16 Oct | 6,697 | 7,621 | 8,810 | 3.1% | 1.8% | German TSOs |
| Thu 15 Oct | 5,291 | 6,229 | 6,609 | 1.9% | 0.6% | German TSOs |
| Wed 14 Oct | 12,090 | 13,544 | 11,880 | 0.3% | 2.4% | OpenWindCast |
The German TSOs' forecast is captured on the day it is published and held fixed. Operators refine their forecasts nearer to delivery, so a value published later may differ. The most recent day or two settle once measured generation is published.
Forecasting wind in Germany
Germany operates the largest onshore wind fleet in Europe, concentrated on the North German Plain. The forecast covers onshore wind in the DE-LU bidding zone and is scored against the day-ahead forecast the four German TSOs publish through the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.
The German fleet is both very large and very widely spread, with the heaviest concentrations in Schleswig-Holstein, Lower Saxony, Brandenburg and Saxony-Anhalt. Scale of that kind changes the forecasting problem. In a fleet spanning most of a continent-sized country, a weather system that arrives late over one region is often early over another, and those differences partly cancel in the national total. This is why large, dispersed fleets tend to show lower forecast error as a share of capacity than small ones, and it is a property of the fleet rather than of any particular forecaster.
The benchmark
The benchmark is the day-ahead onshore wind forecast published by Germany's four transmission system operators, 50Hertz, Amprion, TenneT and TransnetBW, aggregated for the DE-LU bidding zone and distributed through the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. It is captured on the day it is published and then held fixed, so the comparison is always against what the market could actually see before the auction closed.
What is published for Germany
One value per day: onshore wind output at 11:00 local time tomorrow, as a load factor and in megawatts. Once the German TSOs' own forecast for that day is published it is captured and held fixed, and once the metered output is settled both forecasts are scored against it. Every day is added to the record above and nothing is removed or rewritten later. How this is measured.
Questions about wind in Germany
Is this the same as the SMARD wind forecast?
No. SMARD republishes the German transmission system operators' own forecast. That published forecast is the benchmark OpenWindCast is measured against. OpenWindCast produces a separate, independent forecast, and the two are scored side by side every day.
Does the forecast include offshore wind?
No. This zone covers German onshore wind only.
Official links for Germany
Grid operators, their published data, the power exchange and the European transparency platform.
- 50HertzTransmission system operator
- AmprionTransmission system operator
- TenneTTransmission system operator
- TransnetBWTransmission system operator
- NetztransparenzJoint data portal of the four TSOs
- SMARDBundesnetzagentur market data
- EPEX SPOTPower exchange
- ENTSO-E Transparency PlatformEuropean grid and market data
Other bidding zones
- Spain
- Great Britain
- Italy
- Poland
- Finland
- France
- Ireland
- Portugal
- Greece
- Austria
- Denmark DK1
- Flanders
- Wallonia
- Denmark DK2
Compare every operator: how accurate are European TSO wind power forecasts? · How the scoring works