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Greece · electricity price and wind power

Greece day-ahead wind power forecast

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Record updated 27 Oct 2026 Scored against IPTO

Tomorrow · Wed 28 Oct, 11:00 Athens

Wind power forecast for Wednesday 28 October 2026

2,079MW

38.1% of 5,460 MW installed

IPTO, same hour
2,435 MW
Metered
not yet
80% interval
1,906 to 2,281 MW

Most recent scored day, Tue 27 Oct

Metered 1,784 MW. OpenWindCast 1,882 MW, off by 1.8% of capacity; IPTO 1,700 MW, off by 1.5%. IPTO closer

Scoreboard against IPTO

Live since 12 Aug 2026 · 75 scored days · 12 Aug to 27 Oct

39% lower error than IPTO's own day-ahead forecast

OpenWindCast

3.93%

of capacity

IPTO

6.48%

of capacity

Closer on

59%

of days

Error is the average miss at the 11:00 target, as a share of installed capacity (nMAE). Back-test before go-live, shown apart: 323 days, 32% lower error than IPTO. Only live days count above.

Forecast against the operator and the metered output

One point per day at 11:00, in MW. The shaded area is what the fleet actually produced; before the Live marker the forecast line is the back-test.

Accuracy by type of day

Live record, split by how windy the day turned out. Average error in % of capacity; further left is better.

OpenWindCast IPTO
0%5%10%15%20%Low-wind days (34 days)Moderate days (27 days)High-wind days (14 days)0%10%20%Low-windModerateHigh-wind
Type of dayDaysOpenWindCastIPTOCloser on
Low-wind days below 15% of capacity341.96%2.26%50%
Moderate days 15% to 35% of capacity275.25%7.72%59%
High-wind days above 35% of capacity146.15%14.35%79%

The daily record

One row per day at 11:00, in MW. Misses are in % of capacity. Losing days stay in the record.

JSON
Day (11:00) OpenWindCast IPTO Metered Our miss IPTO miss Closer
Wed 28 Oct 2,079 2,435 not yet – – pending
Tue 27 Oct 1,882 1,700 1,784 1.8% 1.5% IPTO
Sun 25 Oct 142 – 202 1.1% – pending
Sat 24 Oct 143 225 175 0.6% 0.9% OpenWindCast
Fri 23 Oct 551 472 589 0.7% 2.1% OpenWindCast
Thu 22 Oct 1,439 1,470 1,741 5.5% 5.0% IPTO
Wed 21 Oct 222 285 323 1.8% 0.7% IPTO
Tue 20 Oct 87 110 61 0.5% 0.9% OpenWindCast
Mon 19 Oct 186 195 188 0.0% 0.1% OpenWindCast
Sun 18 Oct 430 305 324 1.9% 0.4% IPTO
Sat 17 Oct 1,904 2,360 1,898 0.1% 8.4% OpenWindCast
Fri 16 Oct 722 965 888 3.1% 1.4% IPTO
Thu 15 Oct 2,181 2,520 1,440 13.6% 19.8% OpenWindCast
Wed 14 Oct 3,302 3,772 3,416 2.1% 6.5% OpenWindCast

IPTO's forecast is captured on the day it is published and held fixed. Operators refine their forecasts nearer to delivery, so a value published later may differ. The most recent day or two settle once measured generation is published.

Forecasting wind in Greece

Greece's wind fleet follows the Aegean-facing ridges of the mainland, from Evia and the hills of Boeotia down through the Peloponnese, with further clusters in Thrace, Macedonia and on Crete. The forecast covers Greek onshore wind and is scored against the day-ahead forecast IPTO publishes through the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.

The Greek fleet stands on ridges and coastlines rather than on plains. The largest single concentration is on the island of Evia and in the hills of Boeotia and Parnassos just across the water from it, with further clusters in Aitoloakarnania, across Laconia and Arcadia in the Peloponnese, in Thrace and Macedonia to the north, and on Crete. Complex terrain is harder to forecast than flat, open country, because wind speed at turbine height can change sharply over a few kilometres. Greece also has a summer regime of its own: the Etesian winds, known locally as the meltemi, blow from the north and north east down the Aegean for long spells, which is a different problem from the Atlantic frontal systems that drive most of northern Europe.

The benchmark

The benchmark is IPTO's own day-ahead wind forecast for the Greek bidding zone, published through the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform, captured on the day it appears and then held fixed, so the comparison is always against what the market could see before the auction closed. Installed capacity and metered generation come from the same platform. Greece is a single bidding zone; the smaller non-interconnected island systems are operated separately and sit outside it.

What is published for Greece

One value per day: onshore wind output at 11:00 local time tomorrow, as a load factor and in megawatts. Once IPTO's own forecast for that day is published it is captured and held fixed, and once the metered output is settled both forecasts are scored against it. Every day is added to the record above and nothing is removed or rewritten later. How this is measured.

Questions about wind in Greece

Is Crete included?

Yes. Crete has been connected to the mainland grid since 2021 and sits inside the Greek control area, so its wind farms are part of both the forecast and the benchmark. The smaller non-interconnected island systems, in the Dodecanese and the north east Aegean, are run separately and are outside it.

Does Greece have offshore wind?

Not at present. The Greek wind fleet is entirely onshore, so the forecast covers all of it.

Why can metered output come in below what the wind suggests?

Greece has a large solar fleet alongside its wind fleet, and around midday on bright, windy days the system can end up with more generation than it can use. Renewable output is then curtailed, so the metered figure lands below what the weather alone would imply. The scoreboard scores metered output, because that is what a market participant is actually settled on.

Official links for Greece

Grid operators, their published data, the power exchange and the European transparency platform.

Other bidding zones

Compare every operator: how accurate are European TSO wind power forecasts? · How the scoring works